Social dynamics and behavioral response during health threats

Bosetti, Paolo (2019) Social dynamics and behavioral response during health threats. PhD thesis, University of Trento.

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Abstract

The interplay between human behavior and the spreading of an epidemics represents a challenge in modeling the dynamics of infectious diseases. The technological revolution that we are experiencing nowadays gives access to new sources of digital data, capable of capturing behavioral patterns and social dynamics of our society and opening, in fact, the path to new opportunities for mathematical modelers. Provided by such tools, we discuss two different aspects of the dynamics of infectious diseases associated with human behavior. In the first part of the thesis, we focus on the mechanism driving the awareness of individuals during public health emergencies and describe epidemiological models especially tailored to better understand the underline features of the risk perception. The proposed framework is able to disentangle and characterize the contribution of media drivers and social contagion mechanisms in the building of awareness of individuals about infectious diseases. In the second part of the thesis, we present a data driven computational model aiming to assess the potential risk of experiencing measles re-emergence in Turkey. This study takes into consideration the recent massive migration of Syrian refugees in Turkey, which changed the social structure and focuses on the possible outbreak of an infectious disease, such as measles, as a consequence of the great concentration of Syrian refugees not adequately immunized against it. The model proposed is informed with mobility patterns inferred from mobile phone data and accounts for the different hypothetical policies adopted to integrate the refugees with the Turkish population.

Item Type:Doctoral Thesis (PhD)
Doctoral School:Mathematics
PhD Cycle:31
Subjects:Area 01 - Scienze matematiche e informatiche > MAT/05 ANALISI MATEMATICA
Repository Staff approval on:15 Apr 2019 09:07

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